let's do it like they did in 1924 and draw forecasts by hand

Showing: Archive

This archive lists all post, note, and link entries that have a title. Easier to scroll through than the home page.

Posts / 29 October, 2026

Ensembles Are Called Agents Now

Notes / 2025-12-01

Similar-Day Naive Method

Notes / 2025-11-30

Scaling Time Series Using the Inverse Hyperbolic Sine

Notes / 2025-11-23

Stacking Simple Forecasts by Classification

Links / 2025-05-10

'Data Engineers Should Be Held to the Same Standards as Bakers' ∞

Notes / 2025-03-16

Inherently Coherent Forecasts

Links / 2025-02-23

'Performance of Zero-Shot Time Series Foundation Models on Cloud Data' ∞

Notes / 2025-01-12

R-squared as Forecast Evaluation Metric

Links / 2024-10-06

Explosion Back to Its Roots ∞

Links / 2024-10-06

The New Internet ∞

Links / 2024-07-27

Trained Random Forests Completely Reveal Your Dataset ∞

Links / 2024-06-16

How The Economist's Presidential Forecast Works ∞

Links / 2024-05-06

(Deep) Non-Parametric Time Series Forecaster ∞

Notes / 2024-04-21

Debug Forecasts with Animated Plots

Links / 2024-04-15

Reliably Forecasting Time-Series in Real Time ∞

Links / 2024-03-27

Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series ∞

Links / 2024-03-25

Average Temperatures by Month Instead of Year ∞

Notes / 2023-12-12

Stop Using Dynamic Time Warping for Business Time Series

Notes / 2023-12-03

Comes with Anomaly Detection Included

Notes / 2023-11-12

Code Responsibly

Posts / 19 October, 2023

A Flexible Model Family of Simple Forecast Methods

Links / 2023-10-05

Video: Tim Januschowski, ISF 2023 Practitioner Speaker ∞

Links / 2023-09-11

'ECB Must Accept Forecasting Limitations to Restore Trust' ∞

Links / 2023-05-31

In Search of Verifiability: Explanations Rarely Enable Complementary Performance in AI-Advised Decision Making ∞

Links / 2023-05-29

A Framework for Data Product Management for Increasing Adoption & User Love ∞

Links / 2023-05-29

Explainability Washing ∞

Links / 2023-03-25

Bayesian Intermittent Demand Forecasting at NeurIPS 2016 ∞

Links / 2023-02-26

On the Factory Floor ∞

Links / 2023-01-08

SAP Design Guidelines for Intelligent Systems ∞

Links / 2023-01-02

Skillful Image Fast-Forwarding ∞

Links / 2022-09-28

GluonTS Workshop at Amazon Berlin on September 29 ∞

Links / 2022-09-14

Design a System, not an "AI" ∞

Links / 2022-09-06

Berlin Bayesians Meetup on September 27 ∞

Posts / 31 August, 2022

Legible Forecasts, and Design for Contestability

Posts / 30 August, 2022

Where Is the Seasonal Naive Benchmark?

Posts / 25 July, 2022

When Quantiles Do Not Suffice, Use Sample Paths Instead

Links / 2022-07-11

Be Skeptical of the t-SNE Bunny ∞

Posts / 5 July, 2022

Failure Modes of State Space Models

Links / 2021-12-29

Approach to Estimate Uncertainty Distributions of Walmart Sales ∞

Notes / 2021-09-01

Forecasting Uncertainty Is Never Too Large

Posts / 12 August, 2021

What Needs to Prove True for This to Work?

Posts / 14 June, 2020

Embedding Many Time Series via Recurrence Plots

Posts / 7 June, 2020

Rediscovering Bayesian Structural Time Series

Posts / 18 January, 2020

The Causal Effect of New Year's Resolutions

Posts / 16 June, 2019

satRday Berlin Presentation

Posts / 16 April, 2019

Modeling Short Time Series with Prior Knowledge

Posts / 24 February, 2019

Problem Representations and Model-Based Machine Learning

Notes / 2018-11-11

Videos from PROBPROG 2018 Conference

Notes / 2018-09-30

Videos from Exploration in RL Workshop at ICML

Posts / 25 July, 2018

SVD for a Low-Dimensional Embedding of Instacart Products

Posts / 17 June, 2018

Pointwise Mutual Information for Instacart Product Recommendations

Posts / 1 July, 2017

Pokémon Recommendation Engine

Posts / 25 January, 2017

Look At All These Links

Notes / 2016-12-14

Multi-Armed Bandits at Tinder

Posts / 6 November, 2016

Look At All These Links

Posts / 14 June, 2016

Three Types of Cluster Reproducibility

Posts / 30 May, 2016

Assessing the Quality of a Clustering Solution

Posts / 21 September, 2015

Taxi Pulse of New York City

Posts / 26 August, 2015

Analyzing Taxi Data to Create a Map of New York City